PREDICTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ATOPIC MARCH IN CHILDREN WITH ATOPIC DERMATITIS INFECTED WITH HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS
Abstract
Introduction. In recent years, there has been an active search for various diagnostic and prognostic markers for Atopic dermatitis (AtD). For example, the attention of researchers was drawn to the study of the role of signaling proteins produced by vascular endothelial cells — vasoendothelial factor (VEGF) — regulating angiogenesis, growth and division of epidermal cells as important pathogenetic mechanisms of inflammation. The aim of study — to develop an algorithm for an individual prognosis of the development of the atopic march in children with AtD against the background of infection with the herpes simplex virus. Materials and methods. The study is a comprehensive examination of 140 patients with AtD aged 2 to 12 years and 70 healthy patients of the same age. Statistical processing of the results was performed using the STATISTICA 12.0, (Stat Soft Inc.) and SPSS-16 software packages. To develop a mathematical model for predicting the probability of developing an atopic march in children with AtD against the background of HSV, the binary logistic regression method was used. The quality of the developed model was assessed using ROC analysis, with the calculation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results. An algorithm for an individual prediction of the development of associated atopic pathology in children with ATD infected with the herpes simplex virus has been developed. A threshold value of vasoendothelial growth factor level of 19.15 ng/ml was also identified — the “cutoff point” (cutoff), which allows us to recommend it for predicting the development of the atopic march in children with AtD infected with the herpes simplex virus. Conclusion. The proposed algorithm allows predicting the development of the atopic march in children with ATD infected with the herpes simplex virus, has high sensitivity (82%), specificity (90%) and prognostic significance (90%), which allows us to recommend its use in clinical practice.
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