TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF BURN DISEASE

Abstract

The paper provides a historical review of methods for predicting the likelihood of death in patients with severe burn injury. The main criteria for making a forecast for a long time were indicators of age and area of the burn. Due to the simplicity of calculations and relatively satisfactory results, methods such as the Baux rule and the Frank index are still used in the daily practice of combustiologists. However, these methods do not take into account the main links in the pathogenesis of burn disease, and therefore the search for a way to predict a lethal outcome continues. The use of the SOFA, APACHE II, III, IV, SAPS scales for assessing vital functions in severely burned patients makes it possible to perform a relative prognosis based on an assessment of the general condition of patients without taking into account the peculiarities of the course of burn injury. It is shown that the use of selected informative indicators of laboratory and instrumental diagnostics, together with statistical analysis, logistic regression methods, will allow achieving high results in predicting mortality, and will also lead to an individual correction of the qualitative and quantitative composition of intensive care and the choice of the timing of early surgical treatment for each a patient with severe burn injury.